Johnny Carson,

 Mighty Carnak, We Need You.

The night before the Iowa Primary, media heads predicted Democrat contenders to be neck and neck.  The top three hovered around 30%, they said.  In the end,  the anointed one came in last and there was a ten point difference between first and second place.    

The night before New Hampshire, Obama was given a 10 percent lead,  over she whose name cannot be spoken.   Many predicted he would dance on her grave with a blow out.  The Clintons won by a couple percentage points.  Media excuses were made saying that their predictions were right until sHillary cried.  Yep, that’s what did it. sHillary cried and voters died.   

 Hillary didn’t win, Barak lost;  McCain didn’t win, Barak lost.

McCain benefited from the American Idol syndrome.  Independents assumed from  that Obama had it sewn up.  So it was safe to vote for McCain.   

REMEMBER VOTERS, NO ONE IS SAFE.  

Thus Romney who had been leading in New Hampshire up until about a week before the primary; it all changed after Obama won Iowa. 

Now let’s review. 

Media pundats’ predictions look suspiciously like chum. Each primary is the Triple Crown.   The talking heads might as well be Chatty Cathy dolls, “You must watch because its going to be a real squeaker”.   Pull the string, “You must watch because its going to be a real squeaker”. The predictions are meant to influence the outcome.    

Therefore, using my new formula, whoever the winner in South Carolina’s primary is, it will be by about 8 points.  Take the bait turn it on its head, and mix it with some common sense.  How do you like that for science?  Kind of like choosing the winner of the super bowl by the colors of the uniforms.   Don’t laugh, there’s been amazing luck with that. 

How can party nominees be predicted based on events in which non party members are participating?  Iowa voters  change parties within 24 hours of the caucus start.  In New Hampshire, Independents can vote anywhere they want.   The purpose of this arrangement cannot be the determination of party nominees. 

This will serve to pump up the leftists donations and bankrupt those who are not already well moneyed or have establishment support.  If anything, the results seem only useful as a negative predictor of success.  Can you say Pat Buchanan or Howard Dean? 

These early primaries are port-o-potties rented to the left to allow them to pee in the conservative hot tub. 

So get ready for Michigan ‘cause, you guessed it, independents can vote wherever they want.   Don’t fret. No matter, Romney has more money than the Pope .  He’s going to be a solid second  and  will hang in for the duration. Isolated individual victories will pop up like wac-a-moles, only to be smacked down by empty bank accounts.

So here’s my prediction for the Democrats; southern democrats, will vote for Obama,   ABH. 

So folks, after all said and done, wake me when we get to California.   

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Well, I wrote the above a few days ago and I was happily wrong about Romney, but in a good way.  I give South Carolina to Romney or Thompson by 7 or 8 points, using my system described above. 

Many polls are giving South Carolina to McCain.  Hard to believe considering his outrageous positions on illegal immigration.  He really thinks we are all peasants without minds or the ability to read. 

If  he wins in South Carolina, he’s right.