Posted by
Elizabeth Collins on Thursday, January 17, 2008 9:33:37 AM
Johnny Carson,
Mighty Carnak, We Need You.
The night before the Iowa Primary, media heads predicted
Democrat contenders to be neck and neck.
The top three hovered around 30%, they said. In the end,
the anointed one came in last and there was a ten point difference
between first and second place.
The night before New Hampshire, Obama was given a 10
percent lead, over she whose name cannot
be spoken. Many predicted he would
dance on her grave with a blow out. The
Clintons won by a couple percentage points. Media excuses were made saying that their
predictions were right until sHillary cried.
Yep, that’s what did it. sHillary cried and voters died.
Hillary didn’t win, Barak lost; McCain didn’t win, Barak lost.
McCain benefited from the American Idol
syndrome. Independents assumed from that Obama had it sewn up. So it was safe to vote for McCain.
REMEMBER
VOTERS, NO ONE IS SAFE.
Thus Romney who had been leading in New Hampshire up
until about a week before the primary; it all changed after Obama won
Iowa.
Now let’s review.
Media pundats’ predictions look suspiciously like chum.
Each primary is the Triple Crown. The
talking heads might as well be Chatty Cathy dolls, “You must watch because its
going to be a real squeaker”. Pull the
string, “You must watch because its going to be a real squeaker”. The predictions
are meant to influence the outcome.
Therefore, using my new formula, whoever the winner in
South Carolina’s primary is, it will be by about 8 points. Take the bait turn it on its head, and mix it
with some common sense. How do you like that
for science? Kind of like choosing the
winner of the super bowl by the colors of the uniforms. Don’t laugh, there’s been amazing luck with
that.
How can party nominees be predicted based on events in
which non party members are participating?
Iowa voters change parties within
24 hours of the caucus start. In New
Hampshire, Independents can vote anywhere they want. The purpose of this arrangement cannot be
the determination of party nominees.
This will serve to pump up the leftists donations
and bankrupt those who are not already well moneyed or have establishment
support. If anything, the results seem
only useful as a negative predictor of success.
Can you say Pat Buchanan or Howard Dean?
These early primaries are port-o-potties rented to
the left to allow them to pee in the conservative hot tub.
So get ready for Michigan ‘cause, you guessed it, independents
can vote wherever they want. Don’t fret. No matter, Romney has more money
than the Pope . He’s going to be a solid
second and will hang in for the duration. Isolated individual
victories will pop up like wac-a-moles, only to be smacked down by empty bank
accounts.
So here’s my prediction for the Democrats; southern
democrats, will vote for Obama, ABH.
So folks, after all said and done, wake me when we
get to California.
-----------------------
Well, I wrote the above a few days ago and I was
happily wrong about Romney, but in a good way.
I give South Carolina to Romney or Thompson by 7 or 8 points, using my
system described above.
Many polls are giving South Carolina to McCain. Hard to believe considering his outrageous positions
on illegal immigration. He really thinks
we are all peasants without minds or the ability to read.
If he wins in
South Carolina, he’s right.